Everyone who comes to sports betting starts from a beginner and gradually moves towards professionals. And here the question arises, how to determine your own degree of professionalism? In fact, all bookmakers keep records of the bets placed by each client. To do this, just go to your personal account and find the appropriate section “bid history” or “bid statistics”. But such statistics of sports betting shows only superficial data. How many bets the player won and how many he lost. At the same time, it will not work to calculate the current profit or loss for the entire time. It is also worth understanding that if a bettor plays simultaneously in several bookmakers (4-5), then it will be completely problematic to combine and calculate your own successes (failures).
At the same time, do not forget that player 1 makes 10 bets per day, and player 2 only 2-3. But quantity does not mean quality.
To calculate your own profit (profit) or loss, you must take into account all factors:
- the amount of the bet;
- coefficient;
- number of bets.
- At the moment, professional bettors have come to the conclusion that there are three aspects to analyze in your game:
- ROI
- YIELD;
- Breakeven point.
Each value determines the degree of success of the player, and also shows his overall level of play at a distance.
But in order to correctly calculate the data, you need a good distance. 10 bets can be super successful, or vice versa, show a serious negative, but over a longer distance, the indicators will even out and are more likely to show real results. It is better if it will be several hundred bets and even more.
ROI in sports betting
This designation is nothing more than a percentage indicator of the player’s success. In other words, the higher the % over a long distance, the higher the level of the bettor’s game and its effectiveness. Many forecasters focus on this indicator when trying to sell their forecast to amateurs. Most often, it does not correspond to reality and can be considered fraudulent. There are quite a few ways to get a different (more attractive ROI).
ROI = (profit (loss) / bank) * 100%.
Example:
Let’s take $322 of profit with a total bank of $1000 as a basis.
322/1000*100= 32.2% – great ROI for a winning player.
Negative ROI will look like this:
$250 loss in a $1,000 pot. In other words, the player has $750 left from the initial pot of $1,000:
-250/1000*100= -25%.
When calculating ROI, it is also important to understand which player we are dealing with. You can determine the bettor’s style of play by looking at the amount of bets. If the player chooses a conservative game (the amount of the bet is 3-5% of the total bank), then this is a balanced player. But if the amount of the bet varies from 10% and above, this is already considered an aggressive player (maniac). In the short run, he can have a very solid ROI (if he’s lucky and wins), but he also runs the risk of running out of money after a short time if the rates turn out to be negative.
We categorically do not recommend contacting the second type of forecasters. It will lead to bankruptcy itself, and will pull you along with it.
YIELD in sports betting
This indicator also demonstrates the profitability of the player, but does not take the total game bank as a basis, but only the money that is involved in bets.
YIELD = (profit (loss) / bet amount) * 100%.
Example:
For the calculation, let’s take 100 bets of $100 each. In the end, the bettor earned “clean” $350.
350/10000*100=3.5%
In other words, with $10,000 spent, the player earned a net $350, which amounted to 3.5% of the turnover. In this case, it does not matter which bank was originally. It could be $100,000 or $50,000. The YIELD score is the most accurate indicator of how effective a player is at a distance.
Breakeven point
The break-even point determines the zero line from which the player starts to play in plus, or vice versa, in the minus.
Let’s take a coefficient of 2.0 as a basis. If the player wins 50% of all bets made, then such a game will be to zero. 55% of wins will bring 5% of the profit at a distance. 45% (45 bets won out of 100 would mean a -5% loss).
We advise players to build on these formulas when calculating their own effectiveness. If at a distance of 100+bets the bettor sees a positive indicator, then he can consider himself a good predictor. Minus at a distance should make you think about your game. Perhaps it is worth changing the strategy, the method of forecasting, or any other element.
For better clarity, especially when it comes to beginners, it is worth considering an analysis using an excel table. There the bettor enters the following data:
- kind of sport;
- type of bet (live or prematch);
- choice of outcome (win, total, handicap, etc.);
- bet amount;
- coefficient.
The list can continue until the player himself decides that he has taken into account all the necessary calculation factors. This method of analysis will help to determine possible errors in forecasting with greater accuracy. If the results are unsatisfactory, it is worth changing the parameters in one direction or another and looking at the subsequent results.